2020 年欧洲杯16强赛，德国队面对英格兰的优势和劣势分析

在 2020 年欧洲杯16强比赛前，分析英格兰与德国的优势和劣势。

理由有三：英格兰在国际足联排名中排名更高（第四对第十二）；他们的状态比德国好（8胜1平，4胜2平3负）；而索斯盖特的球队将得到温布利球场内45000名球迷的绝大多数支持。

德国队在F组获得第二名的比赛中赢了一场，平了一场，输了一场，而比赛的统计数据会告诉你，他们的表现并不一致。

阵型

到目前为止，德国队在欧锦赛上一直保持着3-4-2-1的阵型。球迷们却强烈地要求回到过去成功使用过的四后卫。

虽然阵型没变，但表现却不尽相同。在对阵葡萄牙的比赛中，获得一场精彩的胜利，但面对法国和匈牙利，两场表现糟糕。

勒夫还在寻找他的最佳阵型——如果输给英格兰，将意味着他17年执的任期结束。

四年前，加雷斯·索斯盖特作为英格兰主帅首次使用了三后卫——对阵德国。他现在并再次这样做。

在小组赛中，他一直坚持4-2-3-1阵型，这样他就可以在不牺牲太多创造力的情况下上两名中场球员。英格兰队在最近几天和整个比赛中都训练了三后卫和四后卫。

控球

德国队在这方面表现出色——他们在比赛中比其他任何球队都能更好地控球，传球成功率超过90%。只有西班牙队的传球率更高（西班牙是空有传球率，得势不得分）。

从英格兰的角度来看，这意味着两件事——他们周二在温布利必须要有耐心，而且可能无法像他们希望的那样控制控球权。这也意味着索斯盖特的人在拿到球的时候必须把球保持得很好，因为一旦丢了，就很难抢回来。

到目前为止，英格兰和德国都在比赛中运用了前场高压逼抢手段，取得了很好的效果——德国以19分排名第五，英格兰以17分排名第七。

进攻

在这方面，德国表现的比英国要好。

到目前为止，勒夫的球队平均每场比赛进两球，而索斯盖特的球队在三场比赛中只进了两球。英格兰队是晋级16强的进球最少的球队，在四个半小时的比赛中，英格兰队只有5次射门命中目标。这是一个让人难以相信的统计数字，显示出英格兰是多么的谨慎。

相比之下，德国队进球和射门都排在前五位，而且他们的射门命中率也排在第六位。

同样明显的是，英格兰和德国在攻击的来源上有很大的不同。德国队在三场比赛中有49次传球（不包括任意球和角球），而英格兰队只有17次。

这表明德国队的危险来自边路，而英格兰队迄今为止的进攻方式非常狭窄——当你考虑到拥有丰富的边路进攻人才时，你会对这个统计结果感到惊讶。

速度也是一个关键因素，如果像预期的那样，德国队拥有格纳布里和萨内，他们将有速度在前场撕开对手防线。这就使得凯尔·沃克在后四人或后三人中的表现更为重要。

再加上哈弗茨的跑位，甩掉防守队员，在防线之间找到空间，这可能是英格兰需要特别注意的另外一点。如果哈弗茨能带走英格兰的中后卫，格纳布里和萨内可以有效利用后面的空间。

攻击球员状态不佳？

然而，迄今为止的进球并不是来自德国的大牌球星——除了哈弗茨。自三月以来，格纳布里只为俱乐部或国家队在一场比赛中进过一球。与上个赛季相比，上个赛季他与罗伯特·莱万多夫斯基（robertlewandowski）结成了欧洲最具杀伤力的搭档之一，帮助拜仁慕尼黑赢得了欧冠冠军。

萨内是曼城2018年度最佳青年球员，但他还没有在欧洲杯上大放异彩。在前两场小组赛中，罗用他作为替补上场，尽管他在周三晚上对阵匈牙利的比赛中得到了整整90分钟的上场时间，但他还没有给人留下深刻的印象。

同样的，切尔西的维尔纳。到目前为止，他一直不受欢迎，在本届世界杯上只为德国队踢了40分钟的足球。

防守

前英格兰前锋阿兰·史密斯说，对于加雷斯·索斯盖特的球队来说，没有比现在更好的机会战胜德国。

英格兰在防守方面证明了自己比德国强大得多。

德军后防一向以谨慎著称，但本届欧洲杯上，却显得防守异常松懈。与英格兰队相比，他们还没有保持住零失球，英格兰队在3场比赛中还没有丢1球（而且在整个小组赛中只让对方获得三次射门）。

德国队在他们的3场比赛中，让对手获得20次射门机会，这是本届世界杯所有球队中倒数第四。到目前为止他们已经丢了5个球，所以他们面对每4次被射门就丢1个球。

这表明，攻德国并不像过去那样坚不可摧。最有经验的球员——守门员诺伊尔（Manuel Neuer）和中卫胡梅尔斯（Hummels）——现在分别是35岁和32岁，已经过了巅峰期。

索斯盖特是否承认这些统计数据，并让他的英格兰队表现出，比他在欧锦赛迄今为止表现得更具进攻性，还有待观察。

关键球员

哈弗茨

统计数据显示切尔西前锋，是德国迄今为止最大的威胁。他在三场比赛中射门九次，是其他德国前锋的两倍多。他在对手禁区的触球次数也最多（17次），远远超过了格纳布里和托马斯·穆勒。小组赛结束时，哈弗茨在预期进球榜上排名第三，仅次于罗纳尔多和莫拉塔。

克罗斯

他是个控球者。克罗斯已经完成了280次传球——他在球场上的传球，比淘汰赛前任何其他国家的球员都多出近10%。这名皇家马德里中场球员在本届世界杯的铲球比赛中也位列前四。到目前为止，他在三场比赛中赢下了10次对抗。英格兰如何对付他可能是关键。如果他们阻止克罗斯在中场指挥比赛，他们就可以击败德国。

胡梅尔斯

这位32岁的后卫，拥有75场国际比赛中经验丰富，对这支德国球队非常重要。他在场上的两端都非常危险，数据证明了这一点。他是德国队的第二多尝试射门（5次）和球队的头号拦截（9次）-这几乎是其他德国球员的两倍。在扮演清扫者的角色时，他也是勒夫球队控球的关键，指挥着比赛，并与克罗斯有效地联系在一起。胡梅尔斯和哈里·凯恩之间的个人决斗可能是决定比赛结果的另一个重要因素。

戈雷茨卡

德国球迷越来越强烈地要求将这位拜仁慕尼黑中场球员列入温布利的首发十一强。戈雷茨卡在对葡萄牙的比赛中上场20分钟，在对匈牙利的比赛中上场35分钟，两次都顶替了曼城的京多安。

托马斯·穆勒

这位德国传奇人物，他的存在对球队其他人来说是一个巨大的依靠。他显然没有完全适应比赛，在上半场对阵匈牙利的比赛中他一直在休息，因为他的膝盖一直有问题。但这位31岁的球员仍然是这支德国球队的重要球员。他是勒夫的场上教练，就像乔丹·亨德森代表英格兰一样，几乎肯定会在温布利首发。

原文：

Germany's strengths and weaknesses analysed ahead of Euro 2020 last-16 meeting with England

england are favourites to beat Germany in the last 16 and end the hoodoo of having never managed a knockout victory over their greatest rivals in a major tournament since 1966.

England are ranked higher in the FIFA rankings (fourth vs 12th); they're in better form than Germany (eight wins and a draw compared with four wins, two draws and three defeats); and Southgate's team will be backed by the vast majority of the 45,000 fans inside Wembley.

Germany have won one, drawn one and lost one in finishing second in Group F, and the tournament statistics would tell you they have been far from consistent.

Formation

Germany have consistently played a 3-4-2-1 formation so far in the Euros, though there is an increasing clamour among the fans to return to the back four they have used so successfully in the past.

While the formation has been consistent, performances have not. A stand-out win against Portugal has been book-ended by two poor performances against France and Hungary.

Joachim Low is still searching for his best formula in his final tournament as boss - defeat to England would mean an end to his 17-year tenure in charge of the 2014 World Cup winners.

Four years ago, Gareth Southgate first used a three-man defence as England manager - against Germany. He now has a decision to make about whether he matches up to Germany and does so again.

In the group stages, he has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 formation which allows him to play two holding midfield players without sacrificing too much creative talent. England have trained with both a back three and a back four in recent days, and throughout the tournament.

Passing

This is where the Germans have been outstanding - they've kept the ball better than any other team in the tournament, with over 90 per cent passing success. Only Spain have totalled more successful passes.

This means two things from an England perspective - they will have to be patient at Wembley on Tuesday, and may not be able to dominate possession as much as they would like. It also means Southgate's men must keep the ball well when they have it, because once lost, it will prove very difficult to win back.

Both England and Germany have employed the high press to good effect in the tournament so far - the two sides rank alongside each other in terms of winning possession in the final third (Germany are 5th overall with 19, England 7th with 17).

Attack

This is an area where Germany have been much more impressive than England.

Low's side have averaged two goals per game so far, whereas Southgate's team have managed just two goals across their three games. England are the lowest scorers to make it through to the last 16, and have mustered just five shots on target in four-and-a-half hours of football. That's a damning statistic and shows just how cautious England have been.

By contrast, Germany are in the top five of all teams in the Euros for goals scored and shots converted, and they're sixth overall for the number of shots on target.

It's also clear that there are significant differences between England and Germany in terms of where the attacks come from. Germany have had 49 crosses in open play (not including free kicks and corners) in three matches, compared with England who have had just 17.

This suggests Germany's danger comes from wide positions, whereas England so far have been very narrow in the way they've attacked - surprising when you consider the wealth of wide attacking talent at Southgate's disposal.

Pace is also a key factor, and if - as expected - Germany play Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane, they will have speed to burn up front. That makes the inclusion of the rapid Kyle Walker in a back four - or a back three - much more likely, and much more important.

Add the intelligence of Kai Havertz, who drops off defenders and finds space between the defensive lines, and this could be another area of concern for England. If Havertz draws out England's centre backs, Gnabry and Sane can exploit the space in behind.

Young attackers out of form?

Nevertheless, the goals so far haven't come from Germany's biggest names - with the exception of Havertz. Gnabry has only scored once for club or country in a competitive game since March. Compare that to the previous season, where he formed one of the most deadly partnerships in Europe, with Robert Lewandowski, to help Bayern Munich win the Champions League.

Sane was PFA Young Player of the Year for Man City in 2018, but he has yet to shine at these Euros. Low used him as a late substitute in the first two group games, and even though he got a full 90 minutes against Hungary on Wednesday night, he is yet to impress.

Likewise Chelsea's Timo Werner. He's been out of favour so far, and has only played 40 minutes of football for Germany in this tournament.

Defence

Former England striker Alan Smith says there may not be a better opportunity than now for Gareth Southgate's side to get the better of Germany.

England have proved themselves much stronger than Germany in repelling attacks.

Renowned for their miserliness at the back, the German's have been uncharacteristically lax defensively. They have yet to keep a clean sheet, compared with England, who have yet to concede a goal in three matches (and who only conceded three shots on target in the whole of the group stages).

Germany have faced 20 shots in their three games - the fourth lowest of any team in the tournament. But they've conceded five goals so far, so that's one goal for every four shots they've faced.

That suggests that when teams attack Germany, they are not as impregnable as they have been in the past. Players with huge reputations - goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and Hummels - who are now 35 and 32 years old respectively, have been said by some pundits to be beyond the very peak of their powers.

Whether Southgate acknowledges those statistics and sets his England team out to be more offensive than he has been so far in the Euros, remains to be seen.

Key Players

Apart from Neuer in goal only Toni Kroos, Josh Kimmich and Antonio Rudiger have been ever-present in the tournament so far. That hints at how Low has been searching for a winning formula.

Kai Havertz

The statistics show the Chelsea forward has been Germany's biggest threat by far. He's managed nine shots in three matches - more than double the tally of any other German forward. He's also had the most touches in an opponents' box (17), way ahead of Gnabry and Thomas Muller. At the end of the group stages, Havertz was third overall in the expected goals table, behind Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata.

Toni Kroos

He is a passing machine. Kroos has completed 280 passes - more than one per minute he's been on the pitch - and almost 10 per cent more than any other player from any other nation in the tournament before the knockout stages. The Real Madrid midfielder is also in the top four players for tackles won in the tournament. He's won 10 so far, in three matches. How England cope with him could be key. If they stop Kroos from dictating play in the midfield, they can then take the game to Germany.

Mats Hummels

The 32-year-old defender is hugely experienced with 75 international caps, and hugely important to this German side. He's also very dangerous at both ends of the field, as borne out by the stats. He is second in the German standings for attempts on goal (five) and the team's leader in terms of interceptions (nine) - that's almost double any other German player. Playing in the sweeper role, he is also key to Die Mannschaft possession, dictating the play and linking up so effectively with Kroos. The personal duel between Hummels and Harry Kane could be another vital factor in deciding the game's outcome.

Leon Goretzka

There is an increasing clamour among Germany supporters for the Bayern Munich midfielder to be included in the starting eleven at Wembley - not least because without his late equaliser against Hungary on Wednesday, Germany would have suffered the ignominy of being knocked out in the group stages of two successive major tournaments. Goretzka came on for the last 20 minutes against Portugal, and the last 35 mins against Hungary - both times replacing Manchester City's Ilkay Gundogan. He is now pushing for a first tournament start against England.

Thomas Muller

The Germany legend - like Hummels - was coaxed back into the national squad for this tournament by Low, almost two years after he was last selected for his country. With over 100 caps to his name, his very presence is a huge factor for the rest of the team. He is clearly not fully match fit, and was rested for the first half against Hungary as he continues to nurse a knee problem. But the 31-year-old is still a key voice in this German side. He is Joachim Low's on-field coach, in very much the same way that Jordan Henderson is for England, and is almost certain to start at Wembley.

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近7年欧足联最佳和金球奖对比：12、13两年存在不同

直播吧8月31日讯 欧足联2017-18赛季欧洲最佳球员在今天凌晨揭晓，效力于皇家马德里的克罗地亚中场莫德里奇当选。欧足联对他的评价是“帮助皇马获得三连冠，同时带领克罗地亚打进世界杯决赛”。

（莫德里奇的官方获奖图背景包括了俱乐部和国家队的双重成就）

欧洲足联欧洲最佳球员（UEFA Best Player in Europe Award）的定义也是表彰上一赛季效力于欧洲俱乐部表现最出色的球员。根据欧洲足联官方所述，欧洲最佳球员奖目的为“选出最佳球员，国籍不限，只需要球员本人在之前的一个赛季中是在欧足联成员国下属的俱乐部效力”。球员不论在俱乐部或国家队，国内、外各项赛事的表现也会被考虑。

也正因如此，带领克罗地亚打进世界杯决赛并收获世界杯金球奖的莫德里奇得以力压前队友C罗和利物浦前锋萨拉赫当选。

众所周知，梅西和C罗两名超级球星在过去多年垄断了以自然年表现评选的金球奖。而欧足联欧洲最佳球员这一奖项于2011年设立以来，已经不止一次花落其他球员手中：

梅西获得了2012年金球奖，但更早之前，由于带队获得欧洲杯的成绩，伊涅斯塔力压梅西获得2011-12赛季欧足联欧洲最佳球员；

C罗获得了2013年金球奖，但更早之前，带领拜仁赢得欧冠同时在法国晋级世界杯过程中起到关键作用的里贝里获得了2012-13赛季欧足联欧洲最佳球员。

（加粗为不同年份）

由于欧足联欧洲最佳球员是以赛季为周期进行评选，而金球奖则是以自然年为周期进行评选，因此过去7年中出现了2次不同。不知道今年会否是第三次呢？

（Richard）